Chaves Correa, F. « Le paradoxe Milei en Argentine : le président joue le jeu démocratique, mais adopte des comportements autoritaires ». (2025)
Argentine President Javier Milei had promised radical changes before coming to power. After a little over a year in office, several signs indicate a decline in the Argentine economy. Wages are starting to catch up with inflation. This fell from a peak of 25.5% in December 2023 to 2.7% in December 2024. The budget deficit was reduced and economic activity rebounded...
Chaves Correa, Federico. « Le paradoxe Milei en Argentine : le président joue le jeu démocratique, mais adopte des comportements autoritaires ». The Conversation, 25 février 2025. https://theconversation.com/le-paradoxe-milei-en-argentine-le-president-joue-le-jeu-democratique-mais-adopte-des-comportements-autoritaires-249711
Lord, A. « Deux menaces à une paix durable ». (2024)
Opinion
The end of Bashar al-Assad's regime has come after 24 years of power and 13 years of murderous civil war. It took two weeks for soldiers from the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a former faction of Al-Qaeda in Syria, to enter Damascus. What does this situation mean for the future of Syria's internal security situation? A look back at two latent conflicts potentially threatening the peace process.
Lord, Alexandre. (2024, 12 décembre). « Deux menaces à une paix durable ». La Press. https://www.lapresse.ca/dialogue/opinions/2024-12-10/syrie-post-assad/deux-menaces-a-une-paix-durable.php
Anderson and al. « Navigating Uncertainty: Rebel Risk Management Strategies during War-to-Peace Transitions ». (2024)
This article explores the strategic decision making of armed groups during war-to-peace transitions—critical time frames during which militant leaders must reconcile their commitment to armed survival with the imperative of postwar civilian conversion. We specify the internal organizational risks rebel groups confront, as well as the menu of strategies from which they select, in navigating the uncertainty inherent in these perilous periods. Our approach broadens the analysis of war-to-peace transitions, offering new insights into the question of why rebels sometimes successfully integrate into postconflict politics, economies, and society, while at other times they forgo participation in the postconflict state. It represents the first step in a wider research program—one that promises to open a number of new directions in the study of insurgent organizations, transitional societies, and postwar outcomes.
Anderson, Noel, Jacques Bertrand, and Alexandre Pelletier. “Navigating Uncertainty: Rebel Risk Management Strategies during War-to-Peace Transitions.” Perspectives on Politics: 1-18.
Toubol, B. « “Maybe tonight, maybe tomorrow, maybe a week from now”: Deterrence and limited war between Israel and Hezbollah ». (2024)
The conflict in Southern Lebanon persists, but to say that the confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah is a logical extension of the conflict against Hamas in Gaza is inaccurate. In a publication for the Strategic Analysis Network, I argue that the two fronts are largely distinct and that Hamas and Hezbollah were merely circumstantial allies.
Summary by Benjamin Toubol
Toubol, Benjamin. « “Maybe tonight, maybe tomorrow, maybe a week from now”: Deterrence and limited war between Israel and Hezbollah ». Hot Takes, Réseau pour l'analyse stratégique, 21 oct. 2024.
Lord, A. « United Wa State Army – impact de la montée du plus puissant groupe armé du Myanmar sur les droits de la personne ». (2024)
With the rapid rise of the United Wa State Army (UWSA) in Myanmar, the region is experiencing major upheavals in security and human rights. As the most powerful ethnic armed group in the country, the UWSA has managed to exploit geopolitical tensions and illicit trafficking to strengthen its autonomy while perpetuating an authoritarian system within its territory. This “State within a State” raises complex questions about the future of peace and the rights of minorities in this sensitive area. This “Snapshot” explores the origins of the UWSA's power, its implications for human rights, and its role in the regional dynamics between China and Myanmar.
Lord, Alexandre. « United Wa State Army : Impact de la montée du plus puissant groupe armé du Myanmar sur les droits de la personne ». Observatoire des droits de la personne (ODP), no 16, 2024.
Lord, A. « Myanmar : le retour des combats dans la province d’Arakan menace les civils, dont les Rohingyas ». (2024)
Since November 2023, resistance against the military junta in Myanmar has intensified, notably with the offensive of the Arakan Army (AA) in the Arakan region, marking a major turning point in this decades-long conflict. In the last clashes in 2017-2018, civilians, particularly the Rohingyas, were the main victims of the violence. Although people of all backgrounds suffer from the insecurity caused by the junta, this new offensive represents another trial for Muslims in Myanmar, who have historically faced persecution.
Lord, Alexandre. « Myanmar : le retour des combats dans la province d’Arakan menace les civils, dont les Rohingyas ». L'Asie en 1000 mots, 23 juil. 2024.
Pelletier et al. « Using technology to study refugee, conflict-affected, and hard-to-reach populations ». (2024)
The worldwide refugee population will continue to grow in the coming decades due to the rise of civil conflict and the growing consequences of climate change. This trend poses a significant challenge in understanding displacement and the impacts of war trauma on populations and finding ways to mitigate these effects. Technology presents an unprecedented opportunity to address this challenge. Technology provides powerful tools to study refugees, conflict-affected, and hard-to-reach populations. However, the use of technology in this context has yet to be theorized into a coherent framework. This article explores the diverse range of technologies used to study refugees and other conflict-affected groups. It provides a typology that focuses on the data, encompassing its nature (participative or non-interactive) and the acquisition methods (either through human action or automated processes). We propose mapping and quantifying technology's impact on data quality. Finally, we explore some ethical and practical challenges and considerations researchers must carefully weigh when selecting an appropriate data collection tool for studying refugee populations in a socially responsible way.
Pelletier, A., Kaewkitipong, L., et Guitton, M. J. « Using technology to study refugee, conflict-affected, and hard-to-reach populations: Methodological and ethical considerations ». Science Direct, Computers in Human Behavior, Volume 152, 2024.
Chaves Correa, F. « Le nouveau président argentin, Javier Milei, est-il d’extrême droite ? La réponse n’est pas simple ». (2024)
A shockwave has been rippling through Argentina since Javier Milei came to power in December, prompting demonstrators to take to the streets in a general strike on Wednesday. With an ideology described as “anarcho-capitalism,” Milei promises major upheaval in a country with a long tradition of state control, which is now in the throes of a deep economic crisis. While the radical nature of his proposals won over many Argentines, it also alienated many, leading to calls for the general strike. Analysts have tried to understand the ideological links between Milei and the various far-right movements that have emerged over the last 20 years, particularly in Europe and the United States. As a doctoral student in political science at Laval University, my research focuses on authoritarianism, particularly in Argentina. In the following, I explore the relationship between Milei and the far-right movement.
Chaves Correa, Federico. « Le nouveau président argentin, Javier Milei, est-il d’extrême droite ? La réponse n’est pas simple ». The Conversation, 18 janv. 2024.
Bertrand et al. « Winning by Process The State and Neutralization of Ethnic Minorities in Myanmar ». (2022)
“Winning through the process” argues that frozen conflicts are more than mere pauses or deadlocks. “Winning through the process,” as opposed to victory through war or agreement, represents the state’s ability to gain an advantage by manipulating negotiation rules, bargaining processes, and sites of power and resources. In Myanmar, five such strategies have allowed the state to win through the process: triggering, sequencing, layering, circumventing, and overarming. The case of Myanmar illustrates how the process can alter the balance of power in negotiations aimed at ending civil war. Over the past decade, the state and the Myanmar army have controlled the process, neutralized minority ethnic groups, and continued to impose their vision of a centralized state, even as they appeared to support federalism.
Bertrand, J., Pelletier, A., et Thawnghmung, A. M. « Winning by Process: The State and Neutralization of Ethnic Minorities in Myanmar ». Cornell University Press. 270 pages, 2022.
Pelletier, A. « Competition for Religious Authority and Islamist Mobilization in Indonesia ». (2021)
This article seeks to explain variations in the success of Islamist mobilization. It argues that Islamist groups do better where competition for religious authority is intense. These religious "markets" are conducive to Islamist success because they 1) lower the barriers of entry to new religious entrepreneurs, 2) incentivize established leaders to support Islamist mobilization, and 3) push moderate leaders into silence. The article develops this theory by examining sub-regional variations in Islamist mobilization on the Indonesian island of Java. Using newly collected data on Java's 15,000 Islamic schools, it compares religious institutions across more than 100 regencies in Java. It also uses dozens of field interviews with Indonesian Islamists and Muslim leaders to show where market structures have facilitated the growth of Islamist groups.
Pelletier, Alexandre. « Competition for Religious Authority and Islamist Mobilization in Indonesia ». Comparative Politics, 53(3), 525–547, 3 avril 2021.